Execute the below prompt after updating the company input in any "Thinking/Research" model with "Extended time" to get better result, update the prompt as your need, even this prompt is generated by AI :) so Not financial advice
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### Prompt: Decision-Ready Equity Memo (Vale, with ₹→$ conversion)
You are a **pragmatic equity analyst**. Produce a **concise, decision-ready memo** with a clear **BUY/HOLD/SELL** call for a **long-term (3–5y)** investor.
**Company inputs (pre-filled)**
- Company: **Vale S.A.**
- Ticker(s): **NYSE: VALE** (ADR, USD), **B3: VALE3** (Brazil)
- Sector/Niche: **Iron ore & base metals (nickel/copper)**
- My average cost: **₹17.59 per share** ➜ **Convert to $** using **today’s USD/INR spot**; **show the rate and math** once, then use **$** thereafter.
- Horizon: **3–5 years**
- Date now: **{auto-fill today’s date}**
**Hard rules**
1) Use **only verifiable data** from reputable sources (company filings, earnings calls, investor presentations, exchanges, regulators, and tier-1 news). **Cite every non-obvious claim with a direct link immediately after the sentence.**
2) If any figure is **>12 months old**, add **“[>12m old]”**. If you can’t verify, write **“Insufficient data.”** No speculation.
3) **Compact, skimmable, numerate.** Bullets > prose. Each section ≤8 bullets. Main body ≤900 words.
4) **Show all math** for ratios, targets, returns, and currency conversion.
5) **₹→$ conversion:** Use **USD/INR spot today** from **RBI/Refinitiv/XE/Oanda**; **show the calculation** (e.g., “₹17.59 ÷ 83.20 = **$0.21**”) and **cite the FX source link**. Use **$** for all subsequent totals.
6) Prefer **tables** where helpful (**max two compact tables**). Every row/figure must include a source or “calc.” note.
**Output header (first line)**
- “**As of {Date}, CMP VALE (NYSE) = ${price} — source: {exchange or IR link}.**”
---
## DELIVERABLE — EXACT OUTLINE (keep headings verbatim)
### 1) Executive Summary (≤8 bullets)
- One-line thesis.
- **BUY/HOLD/SELL + confidence (Low/Med/High).**
- **Fair-value range ($low–$high), base-case target ($)**, implied upside/downside vs **my cost ($ after ₹→$)** and **3–5y CAGR estimate**. **Show math.**
- 3 biggest positives, 3 biggest risks.
- Key catalysts next 6–18 months.
### 2) Macros (ultra-brief: ≤6 bullets, with sources)
- Global: GDP/inflation/rates direction + relevance to iron ore/base metals.
- China/US/EU/Brazil (as applicable to revenue mix): demand, pricing, regulation, FX.
### 3) Industry Snapshot (≤8 bullets)
- Vale’s niche (seaborne iron ore; nickel/copper via base-metals arm).
- Size/growth, pricing dynamics, capacity constraints.
- **Porter 5 Forces** (one line each: entrants, suppliers, buyers, substitutes, rivalry).
- **Critical success factors** + 2–4 metrics (e.g., realized premia vs 62% index, cost/ton & logistics uptime, safety/compliance, base-metals ramp). **Define metrics.**
### 4) Company Overview (≤10 bullets)
- Business model & revenue mix (segment, geography, any customer concentration).
- Differentiators (grade, logistics, briquettes/pellets, etc.).
- Moat assessment (durability + evidence).
- Competitor set (2–4): **Rio Tinto (RIO), BHP (BHP), Fortescue (FSUGY)** — one-line relative strengths/weaknesses.
### 5) Quantitative Analysis (tables where possible)
**5.1 Multi-Year Financials (last 3–5 FYs, TTM if available)**
- Table: Revenue, EBITDA, EBIT, PAT, EPS, FCF, Net debt/Net cash, ROCE/ROIC. **Cite each row.**
- Trend notes: growth, margin trajectory, cash conversion, working capital.
**5.2 Ratios & Peer Compare**
- Table: **VALE vs peers** — P/E (TTM/NTM), EV/EBITDA, P/S, ROCE/ROIC, Rev/EBITDA CAGR. **Cite sources.**
- Brief readout: where VALE leads/lags and why (facts only).
**5.3 Capital Structure & Liquidity**
- Net cash/debt, interest coverage, near-term maturities, capex plans, dividend/buyback policy. **Cite.**
### 6) Qualitative Analysis (≤10 bullets)
- Key risks (commodity prices, China steel demand, compliance/tailings, FX, pricing).
- Mitigations (facts only, with citations).
- Opportunities (S11D productivity, briquettes/pellets, copper/nickel ramp, JV/M&A).
- Management/ownership & governance (track-record highlights).
- ESG items material to economics (dam de-characterization, safety, waste).
### 7) Valuation (show math + assumptions)
- **Relative:** Compare current **NTM P/E / EV/EBITDA** vs peers and VALE’s own history; justify any premium/discount. **Cite multiples.**
- **DCF (quick):** State **WACC** (risk-free, beta, ERP), growth, margins, reinvestment; terminal via **Gordon** or **exit multiple**. Give **intrinsic value range ($)**.
- **Sensitivity:** Target vs **±1–2 pts** on **WACC** and **growth**.
- **Sanity checks:** Reverse-DCF or implied expectations.
### 8) Investment Recommendation
- Final call: **BUY/HOLD/SELL**.
- Base-case target ($) and range ($low–$high).
- **Expected return** vs **my cost ($)** and **vs CMP** (state date/price). **Show math.**
- What would change the call (bull/bear triggers with observable metrics).
### 9) Sources (links)
- Filings/concalls, exchange data, regulator, reputable news; avoid blogs unless uniquely authoritative.
---
## APPENDIX — MINI TEMPLATES (keep compact)
**A) Upside/Downside Math**
- Return from **$Cost → $Target** = (Target/Cost − 1) × 100%
- CAGR (n years) ≈ (Target/Cost)^(1/n) − 1
**B) Quick Peer Table (example columns)**
| Company | Segment/Niche | P/E TTM/NTM | EV/EBITDA | ROCE/ROIC | Rev CAGR | Net Cash/Debt | **Source** |
**C) DCF Sketch**
- Forecast 5–7 years: revenue growth, EBIT margin, tax, reinvestment (ΔWC + Capex − D&A).
- **WACC:** justify with risk-free, beta, ERP (cite). Terminal via **Gordon** (state g) or **exit multiple** (cite comp range).
**Formatting**
- **Bullets only. Max two compact tables.**
- Put **citations immediately after** the claim.
- If any subsection lacks reliable data, write **“Insufficient data.”**
- End with: **“Note: Not financial advice; accuracy depends on cited sources.”**
